Signals

Every macro signal we track, with the latest score and direction.

Product ready signals are maintained for regular monitoring. Research signals are public research still being evaluated and should be used as supporting context.

Public signals

18 results

ConsumerProduct ready

Consumer Stress

Composite view of retail demand, sentiment, saving buffers, consumer borrowing, delinquency, and debt-service pressure.

Current reading0.35Improving
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
CreditProduct ready

Credit Stress

Composite view of financial stress indices, credit spreads, bank credit, household delinquencies, and equity volatility.

Current reading0.12Improving
Data through Sep 24, 2026Weekly
GlobalProduct ready

Global Rates

Composite view of long-rate term-premium dynamics across the major developed-market sovereigns.

Current reading-0.46Deteriorating
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
GrowthProduct ready

Growth Impulse

Composite view of real activity, production, income, employment, and demand momentum.

Current reading0.08Neutral
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
GrowthProduct ready

Manufacturing Activity

Composite of US manufacturing production, capacity, new orders, and leading-activity indices.

Current reading0.38Improving
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
GrowthProduct ready

US Growth Surprise

Trend-surprise index focused on activity, output, and demand releases.

Current reading0.54Improving
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
GrowthProduct ready

US Macro Surprise

Trend-surprise index aggregating major US macro releases; how much recent prints deviate from their own trailing trend.

Current reading0.28Improving
Data through Sep 19, 2026Monthly
HousingProduct ready

Housing Cycle

Composite view of starts, permits, supply pressure, completions, house prices, sales activity, and mortgage-rate sensitivity.

Current reading0.11Improving
Data through Sep 24, 2026Monthly
InflationProduct ready

Inflation Breadth

Composite measuring how broadly inflation has spread across CPI categories.

Current reading0.07Neutral
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
InflationProduct ready

Inflation Expectations

Forward-looking composite of market- and survey-based inflation compensation.

Current reading0.22Improving
Data through Sep 25, 2026Daily
InflationProduct ready

Inflation Pressure

Composite view of realized inflation across headline, core, and breadth measures plus producer pressure.

Current reading0.08Neutral
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
InflationProduct ready

US Inflation Surprise

Trend-surprise index for inflation releases. Positive score = hawkish surprise (releases hotter than recent trend).

Current reading-0.28Deteriorating
Data through Aug 1, 2026Monthly
LaborProduct ready

Labor Tightness

Composite view of unemployment, claims, participation, labor demand, worker confidence, and cyclical-sector payrolls.

Current reading0.15Improving
Data through Sep 19, 2026Monthly
LiquidityProduct ready

Liquidity Conditions

Composite view of Fed balance-sheet liquidity, money supply, reserves, deposits, and reverse-repo plumbing.

Current reading-0.20Deteriorating
Data through Sep 25, 2026Weekly
MarketsProduct ready

Equity Regime

Composite of broad US equity strength, equity-market volatility, and high-yield credit support.

Current reading0.03Neutral
Data through Sep 25, 2026Daily
RatesProduct ready

Policy Restriction

Composite view of policy rates, front-end yields, long rates, mortgage rates, real yields, and yield-curve stress.

Current reading-0.03Neutral
Data through Sep 25, 2026Daily
RatesProduct ready

Real Curve

Composite view of real yields across the curve plus forward inflation expectations.

Current reading-0.58Deteriorating
Data through Sep 25, 2026Daily
Usd-Fx-CommoditiesProduct ready

Dollar Pressure

Composite view of broad dollar strength, DM and EM FX pairs, and oil shock channels.

Current reading-0.17Deteriorating
Data through Sep 22, 2026Daily