Evidence

Evidence through May 16, 2026

Start with the sample

Compare the sample size and period before the hit rate. Smaller samples carry more uncertainty, and historical alignment is not a forecast.

Forward-move evidence

60 results

Early evidence

Global Rates

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
88 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
48% hit rate
Early evidence

Global Rates

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
86 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
37% hit rate
Promising alignment

Global Rates

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
86 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
59% hit rate
Early evidence

Global Rates

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
85 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
39% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Pressure

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
81 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
37% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Pressure

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
80 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
51% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Pressure

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
78 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
42% hit rate
Promising alignment

Inflation Pressure

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
76 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
57% hit rate
Early evidence

Housing Cycle

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
71 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
51% hit rate
Promising alignment

Housing Cycle

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
69 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
55% hit rate
Early evidence

Housing Cycle

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
69 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
49% hit rate
Promising alignment

Inflation Expectations

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
68 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
63% hit rate
Early evidence

Manufacturing Activity

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
68 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
54% hit rate
Early evidence

Credit Stress

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
67 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
42% hit rate
Early evidence

Credit Stress

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
67 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
54% hit rate
Promising alignment

Housing Cycle

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
67 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
61% hit rate
Early evidence

Credit Stress

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
66 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
47% hit rate
Promising alignment

Inflation Expectations

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
66 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
64% hit rate
Promising alignment

Inflation Expectations

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
66 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
88% hit rate
Early evidence

Manufacturing Activity

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
66 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
55% hit rate
Promising alignment

Manufacturing Activity

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
66 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
58% hit rate
Promising alignment

Manufacturing Activity

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
65 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
62% hit rate
Promising alignment

Labor Tightness

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
63 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
70% hit rate
Promising alignment

Labor Tightness

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
61 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
56% hit rate
Promising alignment

Labor Tightness

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
61 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
70% hit rate
Early evidence

Labor Tightness

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
60 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
37% hit rate
Promising alignment

Consumer Stress

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
59 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
66% hit rate
Early evidence

Dollar Pressure

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
58 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
36% hit rate
Early evidence

Consumer Stress

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
57 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
54% hit rate
Promising alignment

Consumer Stress

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
57 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
61% hit rate
Promising alignment

Credit Stress

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
57 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
58% hit rate
Early evidence

Dollar Pressure

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
57 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
18% hit rate
Promising alignment

Equity Regime

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
57 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
61% hit rate
Early evidence

Consumer Stress

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
56 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
50% hit rate
Early evidence

Dollar Pressure

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
56 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
36% hit rate
Early evidence

Liquidity Conditions

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
56 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
52% hit rate
Early evidence

Liquidity Conditions

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
56 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
52% hit rate
Promising alignment

Liquidity Conditions

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
56 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
55% hit rate
Promising alignment

Equity Regime

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
55 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
60% hit rate
Early evidence

Equity Regime

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
54 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
41% hit rate
Promising alignment

Real Curve

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
51 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
63% hit rate
Early evidence

Liquidity Conditions

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
50 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
38% hit rate
Promising alignment

Real Curve

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
49 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
67% hit rate
Promising alignment

Real Curve

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
49 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
59% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Breadth

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
43 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
40% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Breadth

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
42 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
38% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Breadth

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
41 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
39% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Breadth

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
39 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
49% hit rate
Early evidence

Inflation Expectations

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
32 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
0% hit rate
Early evidence

Growth Impulse

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
31 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
55% hit rate
Promising alignment

Growth Impulse

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
30 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
63% hit rate
Promising alignment

Growth Impulse

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
29 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
59% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Promising alignment

Growth Impulse

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
29 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
59% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Promising alignment

Dollar Pressure

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
27 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
100% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Promising alignment

Policy Restriction

10Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
23 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
65% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Promising alignment

Policy Restriction

2Y Yield 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
23 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
74% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Early evidence

Real Curve

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
23 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
26% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Promising alignment

Policy Restriction

WTI Crude 1M Forward

About 1 month forward
Sample size
22 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
68% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Promising alignment

Equity Regime

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
21 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
67% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.

Early evidence

Policy Restriction

10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward

About 3 months forward
Sample size
1 observations
Sample period
Sample period not available
Aligned readings
Aligned count not available
Hit rate
100% hit rate

Small sample: treat this result as early context.