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Global Rates

Composite view of long-rate term-premium dynamics across the major developed-market sovereigns.

GlobalMonthly
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
-0.46
Direction
Deteriorating
Strength
Moderate
Data date
August 1, 2026

This moderate negative reading indicates that the global signal is deteriorating as of August 1, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

124 points

Strongest drivers

Japan 10-Year Government Bond YieldDragging-1.00
Germany 10-Year Government Bond YieldDragging-0.44
Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond YieldDragging-0.31
United Kingdom 10-Year Government Bond YieldNeutral-0.10

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
WTI Crude 1M Forward88 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 48% hit rate
Early evidence
10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward86 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 3 months forward · Aligned count not available · 59% hit rate
Promising alignment
10Y Yield 1M Forward86 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 37% hit rate
Early evidence

Sources

Euro Area 10-Year Government Bond YieldOECD via FRED
Japan 10-Year Government Bond YieldOECD via FRED
United Kingdom 10-Year Government Bond YieldOECD via FRED
Germany 10-Year Government Bond YieldOECD via FRED

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