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Release surprise

Release surprise compares releases with their own recent patterns. It does not measure the overall strength of the economy.

How to read release surprise

Positive and negative show which side of recent patterns the indexed releases favor. For growth, positive means stronger and negative means weaker. For inflation, positive means cooler and negative means hotter.

Rising means the score increased since the prior reading; falling means it decreased.

US Macro Surprise

Broad economic releases are running above their own recent patterns.

Current reading+0.25Positive
Change since prior reading+0.02Rising
Data dateOct 31, 2026US Macro Surprise
Inspect 10 release contributions
ReleaseData dateLatestRecent averageContribution
Industrial ProductionSep 1, 2026103.95102.10+2.84
Real Gross Domestic ProductJul 1, 202624611.0823864.00+2.60
Nonfarm PayrollsOct 1, 2026159293.00158719.67+2.28
Consumer Price IndexSep 1, 2026336.30329.07-1.87
Durable Goods New OrdersSep 1, 2026345371.00326092.75+1.71
Unemployment RateOct 1, 20264.104.29+1.61
Initial ClaimsOct 31, 2026189000.00205961.54+1.61
PCE Price IndexSep 1, 2026132.26129.84-1.61
Housing StartsSep 1, 20261221.001344.67-1.36
Retail SalesSep 1, 2026745021.00748825.67-0.25

US Growth Surprise

Recent growth releases are running above their own recent patterns.

Current reading+0.52Positive
Change since prior reading+0.03Rising
Data dateOct 1, 2026US Growth Surprise
Inspect 8 release contributions
ReleaseData dateLatestRecent averageContribution
Industrial ProductionSep 1, 2026103.95102.10+2.84
Leading Index for the United StatesFeb 1, 20201.721.35+2.64
Real Gross Domestic ProductJul 1, 202624611.0823864.00+2.60
Nonfarm PayrollsOct 1, 2026159293.00158719.67+2.28
Manufacturers' New Orders: TotalSep 1, 2026677247.00636177.50+1.90
Durable Goods New OrdersSep 1, 2026345371.00326092.75+1.71
Housing StartsSep 1, 20261221.001344.67-1.36
Retail SalesSep 1, 2026745021.00748825.67-0.25

US Inflation Surprise

Inflation releases are running hotter than their own recent patterns.

Current reading-0.36Negative
Change since prior reading-0.13Falling
Data dateSep 1, 2026US Inflation Surprise
Inspect 8 release contributions
ReleaseData dateLatestRecent averageContribution
Core CPISep 1, 2026338.90333.80-1.99
Consumer Price IndexSep 1, 2026336.30329.07-1.87
Producer Price IndexSep 1, 2026295.71273.99-1.85
PCE Price IndexSep 1, 2026132.26129.84-1.61
Core PCE Price IndexSep 1, 2026130.90128.94-1.55
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation (12mo)Sep 1, 20262.262.40+1.03
Atlanta Fed Sticky CPISep 1, 20260.280.23-0.59
Median CPISep 1, 20262.812.58-0.24

How release surprise is calculated