Release surprise
Release surprise compares releases with their own recent patterns. It does not measure the overall strength of the economy.
How to read release surprise
Positive and negative show which side of recent patterns the indexed releases favor. For growth, positive means stronger and negative means weaker. For inflation, positive means cooler and negative means hotter.
Rising means the score increased since the prior reading; falling means it decreased.
US Macro Surprise
Broad economic releases are running above their own recent patterns.
Current reading+0.28Positive
Change since prior reading-0.01Falling
Data dateSep 19, 2026US Macro Surprise
Inspect 10 release contributions
| Release | Data date | Latest | Recent average | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | Aug 1, 2026 | 4.10 | 4.32 | +2.20 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Aug 1, 2026 | 159075.00 | 158628.08 | +2.15 |
| Retail Sales | Aug 1, 2026 | 773947.00 | 745305.08 | +2.06 |
| Industrial Production | Aug 1, 2026 | 103.07 | 101.98 | +1.84 |
| Real Gross Domestic Product | Apr 1, 2026 | 24270.60 | 23740.99 | +1.78 |
| PCE Price Index | Jul 1, 2026 | 131.66 | 129.09 | -1.66 |
| Consumer Price Index | Aug 1, 2026 | 334.13 | 328.08 | -1.52 |
| Durable Goods New Orders | Aug 1, 2026 | 338604.00 | 323887.25 | +1.31 |
| Initial Claims | Sep 19, 2026 | 197000.00 | 208538.46 | +1.14 |
| Housing Starts | Aug 1, 2026 | 1275.00 | 1346.00 | -0.79 |
US Growth Surprise
Recent growth releases are running above their own recent patterns.
Current reading+0.54Positive
Change since prior reading+0.06Rising
Data dateAug 1, 2026US Growth Surprise
Inspect 8 release contributions
| Release | Data date | Latest | Recent average | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading Index for the United States | Feb 1, 2020 | 1.72 | 1.35 | +2.64 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | Aug 1, 2026 | 159075.00 | 158628.08 | +2.15 |
| Retail Sales | Aug 1, 2026 | 773947.00 | 745305.08 | +2.06 |
| Manufacturers' New Orders: Total | Jul 1, 2026 | 663616.00 | 626839.42 | +1.85 |
| Industrial Production | Aug 1, 2026 | 103.07 | 101.98 | +1.84 |
| Real Gross Domestic Product | Apr 1, 2026 | 24270.60 | 23740.99 | +1.78 |
| Durable Goods New Orders | Aug 1, 2026 | 338604.00 | 323887.25 | +1.31 |
| Housing Starts | Aug 1, 2026 | 1275.00 | 1346.00 | -0.79 |
US Inflation Surprise
Inflation releases are running hotter than their own recent patterns.
Current reading-0.28Negative
Change since prior reading+0.03Rising
Data dateAug 1, 2026US Inflation Surprise
Inspect 8 release contributions
| Release | Data date | Latest | Recent average | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index | Jul 1, 2026 | 130.66 | 128.27 | -1.85 |
| Core CPI | Aug 1, 2026 | 337.76 | 333.04 | -1.80 |
| PCE Price Index | Jul 1, 2026 | 131.66 | 129.09 | -1.66 |
| Consumer Price Index | Aug 1, 2026 | 334.13 | 328.08 | -1.52 |
| Producer Price Index | Aug 1, 2026 | 287.93 | 271.84 | -1.42 |
| Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation (12mo) | Jul 1, 2026 | 2.28 | 2.48 | +1.25 |
| Median CPI | Aug 1, 2026 | 2.10 | 2.70 | +0.61 |
| Atlanta Fed Sticky CPI | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.25 | 0.23 | -0.29 |