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Real Curve

Composite view of real yields across the curve plus forward inflation expectations.

RatesDaily
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
-0.58
Direction
Deteriorating
Strength
Moderate
Data date
September 25, 2026

This moderate negative reading indicates that the rates signal is deteriorating as of September 25, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

211 points

Strongest drivers

10-Year TIPS Real YieldDragging-0.88
5-Year TIPS Real YieldDragging-0.80
30-Year TIPS Real YieldDragging-0.63
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation ExpectationNeutral0.00

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
10Y Yield 1M Forward51 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 63% hit rate
Promising alignment
2Y Yield 1M Forward49 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 67% hit rate
Promising alignment
WTI Crude 1M Forward49 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 59% hit rate
Promising alignment

Sources

5-Year TIPS Real YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED
10-Year TIPS Real YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED
30-Year TIPS Real YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation ExpectationFederal Reserve Board via FRED

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