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Growth Impulse

Composite view of real activity, production, income, employment, and demand momentum.

GrowthMonthly
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
0.08
Direction
Neutral
Strength
Weak
Data date
August 1, 2026

This weak positive reading indicates that the growth signal is neutral as of August 1, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

124 points

Strongest drivers

Durable Goods New OrdersSupporting0.20
Personal Consumption ExpendituresSupporting0.12
Real Disposable Personal IncomeSupporting0.11
Industrial ProductionNeutral0.04
Capacity UtilizationNeutral0.01

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
WTI Crude 1M Forward31 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 55% hit rate
Early evidence
10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward30 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 3 months forward · Aligned count not available · 63% hit rate
Promising alignment
10Y Yield 1M Forward29 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 59% hit rateSmall sample: treat this result as early context.
Promising alignment

Sources

Industrial ProductionFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Capacity UtilizationFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Personal Consumption ExpendituresU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Real Disposable Personal IncomeU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Nonfarm PayrollsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Durable Goods New OrdersU.S. Census Bureau via FRED

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