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Consumer Stress

Composite view of retail demand, sentiment, saving buffers, consumer borrowing, delinquency, and debt-service pressure.

ConsumerMonthly
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
0.35
Direction
Improving
Strength
Moderate
Data date
August 1, 2026

This moderate positive reading indicates that the consumer signal is improving as of August 1, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

125 points

Strongest drivers

Personal Saving RateSupporting1.00
University of Michigan Consumer SentimentSupporting1.00
Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans at Commercial BanksSupporting0.33
Retail SalesSupporting0.13
Household Debt Service RatioSupporting0.13

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
WTI Crude 1M Forward59 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 66% hit rate
Promising alignment
10Y-2Y Curve 3M Forward57 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 3 months forward · Aligned count not available · 61% hit rate
Promising alignment
10Y Yield 1M Forward57 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 54% hit rate
Early evidence

Sources

Retail SalesU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Personal Saving RateU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Revolving Consumer CreditFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Total Consumer CreditFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Household Debt Service RatioFederal Reserve Board via FRED
University of Michigan Consumer SentimentUniversity of Michigan via FRED
Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans at Commercial BanksFederal Reserve Board via FRED

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