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Labor Tightness

Composite view of unemployment, claims, participation, labor demand, worker confidence, and cyclical-sector payrolls.

LaborMonthly
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
0.15
Direction
Improving
Strength
Weak
Data date
October 31, 2026

This weak positive reading indicates that the labor signal is improving as of October 31, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

151 points

Strongest drivers

Initial ClaimsSupporting0.50
QuitsSupporting0.50
Job OpeningsSupporting0.22
Employment-Population RatioNeutral0.07
Manufacturing EmploymentNeutral0.06

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
WTI Crude 1M Forward63 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 70% hit rate
Promising alignment
2Y Yield 1M Forward61 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 70% hit rate
Promising alignment
10Y Yield 1M Forward61 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 56% hit rate
Promising alignment

Sources

Unemployment RateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
U-6 Underemployment RateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Initial ClaimsU.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Continued ClaimsU.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Employment-Population RatioU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Job OpeningsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
QuitsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Manufacturing EmploymentU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Construction EmploymentU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED

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