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Policy Restriction

Composite view of policy rates, front-end yields, long rates, mortgage rates, real yields, and yield-curve stress.

RatesDaily
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
0.03
Direction
Neutral
Strength
Weak
Data date
September 4, 2026

This weak positive reading indicates that the rates signal is neutral as of September 4, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

239 points

Strongest drivers

10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury SpreadDragging-0.70
10-Year TIPS Real YieldNeutral0.08
30-Year Fixed Mortgage RateNeutral-0.06
3-Month Treasury YieldNeutral-0.05
Secured Overnight Financing RateNeutral0.03

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
2Y Yield 1M Forward23 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 74% hit rateSmall sample: treat this result as early context.
Promising alignment
10Y Yield 1M Forward23 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 65% hit rateSmall sample: treat this result as early context.
Promising alignment
WTI Crude 1M Forward22 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 68% hit rateSmall sample: treat this result as early context.
Promising alignment

Sources

Effective Federal Funds RateFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Federal Funds RateFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Secured Overnight Financing RateFederal Reserve Bank of New York via FRED
3-Month Treasury YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED
2-Year Treasury YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED
10-Year Treasury YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED
10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury SpreadFederal Reserve Board via FRED
10-Year Minus 3-Month Treasury SpreadFederal Reserve Board via FRED
30-Year Fixed Mortgage RateFreddie Mac via FRED
10-Year TIPS Real YieldFederal Reserve Board via FRED

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