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Housing Cycle

Composite view of starts, permits, supply pressure, completions, house prices, sales activity, and mortgage-rate sensitivity.

HousingMonthly
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
0.11
Direction
Improving
Strength
Weak
Data date
September 24, 2026

This weak positive reading indicates that the housing signal is improving as of September 24, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

145 points

Strongest drivers

Monthly Supply of New HousesSupporting1.00
Housing CompletionsDragging-1.00
New One-Family Houses SoldSupporting1.00
Housing StartsSupporting0.83
30-Year Fixed Mortgage RateDragging-0.48

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
WTI Crude 1M Forward71 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 51% hit rate
Early evidence
10Y Yield 1M Forward69 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 55% hit rate
Promising alignment
2Y Yield 1M Forward69 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 49% hit rate
Early evidence

Sources

Housing StartsU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Building PermitsU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Monthly Supply of New HousesU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
FHFA All-Transactions House Price IndexFederal Housing Finance Agency via FRED
Housing CompletionsU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
30-Year Fixed Mortgage RateFreddie Mac via FRED
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price IndexS&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED
Existing Home SalesNational Association of Realtors via FRED
New One-Family Houses SoldU.S. Census Bureau via FRED

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