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Manufacturing Activity

Composite of US manufacturing production, capacity, new orders, and leading-activity indices.

GrowthMonthly
Product ready

Current reading

How scores work
0.38
Direction
Improving
Strength
Moderate
Data date
August 1, 2026

This moderate positive reading indicates that the growth signal is improving as of August 1, 2026.

Signal history

See how the normalized reading changed over time.

124 points

Strongest drivers

Leading Index for the United StatesSupporting1.00
Chicago Fed National Activity IndexSupporting1.00
Durable Goods New OrdersSupporting0.20
Industrial Production: ManufacturingNeutral0.05
Capacity UtilizationNeutral0.01

Evidence preview

Full Evidence
WTI Crude 1M Forward68 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 54% hit rate
Early evidence
2Y Yield 1M Forward66 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 58% hit rate
Promising alignment
10Y Yield 1M Forward66 observations · Sample period not availableAbout 1 month forward · Aligned count not available · 55% hit rate
Early evidence

Sources

Industrial Production: ManufacturingFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Capacity UtilizationFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Durable Goods New OrdersU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Manufacturers' New Orders: TotalU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Leading Index for the United StatesFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia via FRED
Chicago Fed National Activity IndexFederal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED

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