Back to signals
Product readyUS Macro Surprise
Trend-surprise index aggregating major US macro releases; how much recent prints deviate from their own trailing trend.
Current reading
How scores workThis moderate positive reading indicates that the growth signal is improving as of September 19, 2026.
Signal history
See how the normalized reading changed over time.
Strongest drivers
Housing StartsSupporting0.83
Unemployment RateSupporting0.47
Initial ClaimsSupporting0.44
Durable Goods New OrdersSupporting0.20
Retail SalesSupporting0.13
Evidence preview
Full EvidenceNo public evidence is available for this signal yet.
Sources
Nonfarm PayrollsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Unemployment RateU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Consumer Price IndexU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
PCE Price IndexU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Real Gross Domestic ProductU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Retail SalesU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Industrial ProductionFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Initial ClaimsU.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Durable Goods New OrdersU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Housing StartsU.S. Census Bureau via FRED