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Product readyUS Growth Surprise
Trend-surprise index focused on activity, output, and demand releases.
Current reading
How scores workThis strong positive reading indicates that the growth signal is improving as of August 1, 2026.
Signal history
See how the normalized reading changed over time.
Strongest drivers
Leading Index for the United StatesSupporting1.00
Housing StartsSupporting0.83
Durable Goods New OrdersSupporting0.20
Retail SalesSupporting0.13
Real Gross Domestic ProductSupporting0.10
Evidence preview
Full EvidenceNo public evidence is available for this signal yet.
Sources
Nonfarm PayrollsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Real Gross Domestic ProductU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Industrial ProductionFederal Reserve Board via FRED
Retail SalesU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Durable Goods New OrdersU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Housing StartsU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Manufacturers' New Orders: TotalU.S. Census Bureau via FRED
Leading Index for the United StatesFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia via FRED