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Product readyUS Inflation Surprise
Trend-surprise index for inflation releases. Positive score = hawkish surprise (releases hotter than recent trend).
Current reading
How scores workThis moderate negative reading indicates that the inflation signal is deteriorating as of September 1, 2026.
Signal history
See how the normalized reading changed over time.
Strongest drivers
Median CPIDragging-1.00
Atlanta Fed Sticky CPIDragging-1.00
Producer Price IndexDragging-0.31
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation (12mo)Dragging-0.13
Consumer Price IndexDragging-0.11
Evidence preview
Full EvidenceNo public evidence is available for this signal yet.
Sources
Consumer Price IndexU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Core CPIU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
PCE Price IndexU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Core PCE Price IndexU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
Producer Price IndexU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
Median CPIFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland via FRED
Atlanta Fed Sticky CPIFederal Reserve Bank of Atlanta via FRED
Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation (12mo)Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas via FRED