Concepts

Signals

A signal is a normalized macro reading with a stable identifier, category, score, direction, strength, confidence, formula version, and explanatory metadata.

• Scores are bounded from -1 to 1.
• Direction summarizes whether the signal is improving, deteriorating, neutral, or unavailable.
• Confidence reflects available input history and coverage.
• Formula versions make changes traceable over time.

Composites

Composite signals combine multiple public-data inputs into a broader product-ready macro view. They are the primary surface for daily monitoring because they reduce single-series noise while keeping input drivers visible. 18 composites currently ship as product_ready, each built from 4 to 10 input series.

Validation

Validation runs compare historical signal direction against configured forward targets. Results are stored and served from the repository so dashboards and APIs do not recompute backtests on every request.

Alerts

Alerts are descriptive workflow prompts derived from signal history. They highlight threshold breaches, sharp deterioration, and regime shifts, but they are not trading recommendations.